Thursday, February 23, 2006
Global Jihad - Pakistan Theater
This editorial in today's New York Times opines that: "If the Bush administration is wondering why the Pakistani Army has been losing the war against Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the northwestern frontier, it may want to look south. Pakistan's military ruler, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has increasingly been diverting his armed forces to quell a growing insurgency in Baluchistan, the gas-rich province that borders Iran and the Arabian Sea."
It goes on to urge that Baluchistan be given more autonomy ( as reward for insurgency?); and concludes on the whining note that America's image is"damaged when American-supplied Cobra helicopters and F-16's attack civilians in Baluchistan. That's no way to win the hearts and minds of anyone."
Well, that's a typical NYT theme in this global war - surrender without knowledge of the enemy or the terrain . So let's get a better picture of the enemy and terrain, starting with real situation in Pakistan.
This Asia Times Online article provides a quick introduction to the complexities of internal power politics in Pakistan, where Muslims are contending among themselves. You can begin to see the inteplay between local-tribal power politics , the use (by al Qaeda and others) of a religious call for Sharia to instigate revolution among muslims, and how these factors play into a delicate balance between us and our muslim allies, uncommitted muslims, and the Militant Islamists. From the article:
"Low-profile government-sponsored rallies to condemn publication of cartoons featuring the Prophet Mohammed have swiftly escalated into a campaign directed against Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf. ...( becoming a movement) to enforce Prophet Mohammed's way of life, or sharia law, on to society. .... (setting) a deadline of March 23 to depose Musharraf, but there are clear signals that within a matter of weeks the military regime could have further lost some of its grip on power."
Continuing the theme : "It is an open secret that the government encouraged and sponsored rallies ostensibly against the cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. The aim was to send a message to the West of the dangers of extremism in Pakistan, and that it could only be contained by the military dictatorship.
This scheme has badly backfired, which the government was quick to realize. After a few rallies in Punjab, for example, the administration imposed the so-called Section 144 across the province and in the federal capital, under which all public gatherings were banned."
"On Friday, the opposition parties called for countrywide demonstrations, and on Sunday they called for a rally in Lahore, even though protests have been banned there.
More protests have been scheduled for next month. ......The situation is fast coming to a head. "
With that background, it easy to see why Bill Roggio calls his link-rich summary of these events - Local Jihad, Global Jihad: "Pakistan continues its tortured role as an ally of the West and enabler of Islamist terror. Pakistani courts have sentenced to death eleven members of al-Qaeda linked Jundallah (which actively operating in Waziristan and, per the BBC, may now be operating in the Palestinian territories).
Strategy Page reports Pakistani television “showed three men, in the tribal areas on the Afghan border, being beheaded for opposing Taliban and al Qaeda operations...” Meanwhile, Islamist mobs riot while the Pakistani government attempts to suppress the protests. " (NB, no mention of "Islamist" mobs in that NYT editorial - hard to fight a war with blinders on.)
While Pakistan continues to try to keep a lid on the Islamist angst, Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s deputy commander, mocks president Musharraf, and claims he escaped four separate attacks while in Pakistan and Afghanistan. ... Zawahiri taunts Musharraf and issues another threat; "Your American masters are fleeing from Iraq and Afghanistan. So, await a day of accounting for the Muslim blood you have spilt."
For me, that quote says a lot about the Global Jihad too. The enemy is waging war on many fronts, including campaigns of violent confrontation and intimidation against muslims to unite them under their ideological leadership and against Western institutions and media to silence them and keep us unaware of their intentions. Remember that Zawahiri quote whenever you hear someone advocate for a quick (or a Timetable for) withdrawel of our troops from Iraq.
The rest of Bill Roggio's analysis of Pakistan is very insightful :
"In the Asia Times, Olivier Immig reviews Husain Haqqani’s Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military, and neatly sums up how Pakistan’s power brokers have sought to obtain and maintain their power:
It goes on to urge that Baluchistan be given more autonomy ( as reward for insurgency?); and concludes on the whining note that America's image is"damaged when American-supplied Cobra helicopters and F-16's attack civilians in Baluchistan. That's no way to win the hearts and minds of anyone."
Well, that's a typical NYT theme in this global war - surrender without knowledge of the enemy or the terrain . So let's get a better picture of the enemy and terrain, starting with real situation in Pakistan.
This Asia Times Online article provides a quick introduction to the complexities of internal power politics in Pakistan, where Muslims are contending among themselves. You can begin to see the inteplay between local-tribal power politics , the use (by al Qaeda and others) of a religious call for Sharia to instigate revolution among muslims, and how these factors play into a delicate balance between us and our muslim allies, uncommitted muslims, and the Militant Islamists. From the article:
"Low-profile government-sponsored rallies to condemn publication of cartoons featuring the Prophet Mohammed have swiftly escalated into a campaign directed against Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf. ...( becoming a movement) to enforce Prophet Mohammed's way of life, or sharia law, on to society. .... (setting) a deadline of March 23 to depose Musharraf, but there are clear signals that within a matter of weeks the military regime could have further lost some of its grip on power."
Continuing the theme : "It is an open secret that the government encouraged and sponsored rallies ostensibly against the cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. The aim was to send a message to the West of the dangers of extremism in Pakistan, and that it could only be contained by the military dictatorship.
This scheme has badly backfired, which the government was quick to realize. After a few rallies in Punjab, for example, the administration imposed the so-called Section 144 across the province and in the federal capital, under which all public gatherings were banned."
"On Friday, the opposition parties called for countrywide demonstrations, and on Sunday they called for a rally in Lahore, even though protests have been banned there.
More protests have been scheduled for next month. ......The situation is fast coming to a head. "
With that background, it easy to see why Bill Roggio calls his link-rich summary of these events - Local Jihad, Global Jihad: "Pakistan continues its tortured role as an ally of the West and enabler of Islamist terror. Pakistani courts have sentenced to death eleven members of al-Qaeda linked Jundallah (which actively operating in Waziristan and, per the BBC, may now be operating in the Palestinian territories).
Strategy Page reports Pakistani television “showed three men, in the tribal areas on the Afghan border, being beheaded for opposing Taliban and al Qaeda operations...” Meanwhile, Islamist mobs riot while the Pakistani government attempts to suppress the protests. " (NB, no mention of "Islamist" mobs in that NYT editorial - hard to fight a war with blinders on.)
While Pakistan continues to try to keep a lid on the Islamist angst, Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s deputy commander, mocks president Musharraf, and claims he escaped four separate attacks while in Pakistan and Afghanistan. ... Zawahiri taunts Musharraf and issues another threat; "Your American masters are fleeing from Iraq and Afghanistan. So, await a day of accounting for the Muslim blood you have spilt."
For me, that quote says a lot about the Global Jihad too. The enemy is waging war on many fronts, including campaigns of violent confrontation and intimidation against muslims to unite them under their ideological leadership and against Western institutions and media to silence them and keep us unaware of their intentions. Remember that Zawahiri quote whenever you hear someone advocate for a quick (or a Timetable for) withdrawel of our troops from Iraq.
The rest of Bill Roggio's analysis of Pakistan is very insightful :
"In the Asia Times, Olivier Immig reviews Husain Haqqani’s Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military, and neatly sums up how Pakistan’s power brokers have sought to obtain and maintain their power:
In Between Mosque and Military Haqqani instantaneously makes it clear that all military Pakistani leaders, and there have been quite a number of them since 1947, from the early days of Pakistan"s inception to the present have relied on the same ideological framework in ruling their country. This so-called "tripod" consists of: maintaining the territorial integrity of Pakistan through a strong, dominant military presence in all state affairs by continued confrontational politics versus India; maintaining the ideological "unity" of the country by promoting an Islamist nationalist ideology; and heavy reliance on continuing US economic and military support by serving as the "West's eastern anchor" in South Asia.
While this solution has worked while the primary adversaries of Pakistan were nation-states, the advent of a global society has thrown this policy into turmoil. The policies of promoting of “an Islamist nationalist ideology” and the “heavy reliance on continuing US economic and military support” are now at odds, and Pakistan is increasingly finding it difficult to maintain the balance of power. The Islamists the Pakistani government succors has thrown in its lot with al-Qaeda and now wishes to overthrow the regime, as the assassination attempts on Musharraf and his generals, the support for Islamist terrorists in Waziristan and the stoking of the fires of the Muhammed cartoons demonstrates.
In the world of globalization, there is no such thing as an Islamist nationalist ideology. al-Qaeda has cleverly co-opted local Islamist groups and infused them with the ideology of global jihad. Pakistan’s ruling class has yet to grasp this reality, or if they have, is currently powerless to address the situation."
Oh, just a Global Jihad strategy note - Pakistan has nuclear weapons and missiles.
