Friday, March 10, 2006
Mid-East - Panic or Perspective ?
Some pundits and commentators read the political tea leaves and think we are in danger of a stampede away from Iraq. Not an unrealistic fear given the latest barrage of negative publicity about the UAE ports deal, recent polls about Bush and soldier attitudes in Iraq ( even though both are extremely unreliable), and the Congressional actions on the ports deal and NSA (both of which seem to reflect a need for image over substance.) With elections coming up, Republicans are showing signs of confusion about how to stake out an electable position seperate from the President's position. Politicians tend to have good survival instincts and an ear to their public. They also tend to have very short time horizons are can panic when hearing a lot of uncertainty from their constituents.
I don't think it's panic time yet; but it is time to regain the perspective to avoid future panic. It's important to spread the information for a balanced perspective about what we are doing in Iraq and the Mid-East and what the real costs , gains and dangers are. To that end, Victor Davis Hanson's latest essay, The Great Stampede, is worth reading in full at National Review Online; some key excerpts follow:
"For all the tragedy of our fallen in Iraq, if a constitutional government stabilizes in Baghdad, and liberalization follows in the surrounding region, then our losses will not be measured against the far lighter casualties suffered in Panama, Gulf War I, or Grenada, but against the far worse losses of Korea and World War II. ......
The World Beyond
Things abroad simply are not worse after March 2003. Europe is again growing closer to the United States, in part due to its fright after the French rioting, the Danish cartoons, and murders in the Netherlands. Its multilateral alternative to the United States is in retreat, as we see from the humiliating negotiations with Iran, Hamas, and the Russians.
India and Pakistan are closer to us now than before Iraq. China is China; Japan is a military ally as never before. England and Australia are strategic partners; Canada and New Zealand are similarly beginning to follow a wiser course. The world is catching on to Iran, and the theocracy must subvert the new Iraqi democracy or itself be undermined by the nearby democratic experiment.
There is, of course, heightened anti-Americanism in places, but it is largely confined to specific areas. The Middle East Street resents deeply the humiliation of seeing Muslim leaders so easily dethroned. The European cafés abhor the spread of American popular culture and muscle, and are starting to recoil in shock that the world did not turn out to follow the rules of the Hague or the EU charter. And then there is the trans-Atlantic elite, who, after calling for three decades for a more principled American policy, finally got it in spades — but splattered with all the gore and mess that such radical changes always entail.
The Military
Yet another misconception concerns the U.S. military. Almost all the latest grievances against it have proven to be mostly hype. It is meeting its recruiting goals. In the heart of the ancient caliphate, with great sensitivity and tact, it has trained ten Iraqi divisions, after removing a 30-year old fascistic dictatorship with dispatch. If America’s was already the best equipped and disciplined military in the world, it is now also the most savvy and experienced in precisely the sort of asymmetrical war our pundits worry threaten our future. In all the post facto, self-serving, tell-all books by our ex-intelligence agents and diplomats, it is high-ranking military officers who usually escape censure."
Hanson's Bottom Line stikes a cautionary note : "So here we are — close to victory abroad, closer to concession at home." We've been here before, but never before did we have the ability to reach so many with a message of perspective and encouragement.
I don't think it's panic time yet; but it is time to regain the perspective to avoid future panic. It's important to spread the information for a balanced perspective about what we are doing in Iraq and the Mid-East and what the real costs , gains and dangers are. To that end, Victor Davis Hanson's latest essay, The Great Stampede, is worth reading in full at National Review Online; some key excerpts follow:
"For all the tragedy of our fallen in Iraq, if a constitutional government stabilizes in Baghdad, and liberalization follows in the surrounding region, then our losses will not be measured against the far lighter casualties suffered in Panama, Gulf War I, or Grenada, but against the far worse losses of Korea and World War II. ......
The World Beyond
Things abroad simply are not worse after March 2003. Europe is again growing closer to the United States, in part due to its fright after the French rioting, the Danish cartoons, and murders in the Netherlands. Its multilateral alternative to the United States is in retreat, as we see from the humiliating negotiations with Iran, Hamas, and the Russians.
India and Pakistan are closer to us now than before Iraq. China is China; Japan is a military ally as never before. England and Australia are strategic partners; Canada and New Zealand are similarly beginning to follow a wiser course. The world is catching on to Iran, and the theocracy must subvert the new Iraqi democracy or itself be undermined by the nearby democratic experiment.
There is, of course, heightened anti-Americanism in places, but it is largely confined to specific areas. The Middle East Street resents deeply the humiliation of seeing Muslim leaders so easily dethroned. The European cafés abhor the spread of American popular culture and muscle, and are starting to recoil in shock that the world did not turn out to follow the rules of the Hague or the EU charter. And then there is the trans-Atlantic elite, who, after calling for three decades for a more principled American policy, finally got it in spades — but splattered with all the gore and mess that such radical changes always entail.
The Military
Yet another misconception concerns the U.S. military. Almost all the latest grievances against it have proven to be mostly hype. It is meeting its recruiting goals. In the heart of the ancient caliphate, with great sensitivity and tact, it has trained ten Iraqi divisions, after removing a 30-year old fascistic dictatorship with dispatch. If America’s was already the best equipped and disciplined military in the world, it is now also the most savvy and experienced in precisely the sort of asymmetrical war our pundits worry threaten our future. In all the post facto, self-serving, tell-all books by our ex-intelligence agents and diplomats, it is high-ranking military officers who usually escape censure."
Hanson's Bottom Line stikes a cautionary note : "So here we are — close to victory abroad, closer to concession at home." We've been here before, but never before did we have the ability to reach so many with a message of perspective and encouragement.
